TR-ETS

Policy-facing analysis system for Turkey's Emissions Trading System, which runs its pilot phase in 2026 and 2027. Its headline output is a CBAM-aligned Turkish carbon price corridor: the ceiling is the EU price from EEX auctions, the floor is the CBAM-equivalent price, and the midpoint is the equilibrium price from sectoral abatement cost curves, refreshed every business day from official EEX and Central Bank of Turkey data. Behind it sit two designs: a manipulation-resistant exchange built from Frequent Batch Auctions (FBA), Time and Depth Weighted Liquidity (TWLD) and Quadratic Liquidity Incentives (QLI), which removes the front-runner's speed advantage and caps whale dominance, and a sovereign hedge that minimizes Net Sovereign Balance variance with a Brent, copper and rainfall basket. A Python 3.11 engine runs the mechanisms, stress tests, Monte Carlo and CBAM scenarios; a pre-publish gate cross-checks the sources and stops bad data; the public site is static JavaScript with Plotly, published by GitHub Actions every business day. 183 automated tests. It makes no price forecasts.